Since the liberation of Kherson, Russian troops have taken a course toward systematic strikes on the city to terrorize the local population. As of November, literal hell is raging in the regional center due to constant drone and artillery attacks. According to the Ukrainian Defense Forces, in October alone more than 9,000 FPV drone strikes were recorded in the Kherson direction.

War criminals deliberately hunt civilians: flying through house windows, attacking people in the streets, targeting minibuses, ambulances, rescue crews, and humanitarian missions. In addition, the occupiers fire 1,500–1,600 artillery shells at the Kherson region every day, and the number of guided aerial bomb strikes has increased from 250 in September to over 550 in October. Having failed to seize the city by force, Russia has prepared an extraordinarily brutal war crime for civilians. If the aggressor is not stopped, the catastrophic consequences will be felt throughout the Black Sea region.

The editorial staff of Channel 24 received an intercepted combat order from the hacker group "256 Cyber Assault Division," according to which units of the Russian army are preparing to intensify large-scale war crimes in Kherson. The document was found in the service correspondence of Major Aleksei Yatsenko of the 98th Airborne Division.

The officer’s correspondence indicates that the Kremlin not only wants to turn a major city into scorched earth, but also create a large-scale environmental disaster that will be felt in Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria. Read more about this in the material.

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An analysis of Yatsenko’s correspondence and cloud storage shows that the major serves in the occupation army as a mobilized soldier in the 331st Parachute Regiment, which belongs to the 98th Airborne Division.


Yatsenko’s certificate of participation in the war against Ukraine / Photo provided by the 256 Cyber Assault Division

Before being redeployed to the Kherson region, this division had long participated in battles in Donbas: before Chasiv Yar, it was involved in the bloody battle for Bakhmut, where the Russian tactic involved the complete destruction of the city.

In early autumn 2025, the regiment within the division was transferred to the Kherson direction, as reported by analysts of the Institute for the Study of War. Therefore, it is entirely possible that Russia’s high military-political command decided to deploy this group on the left bank of the Dnipro due to its experience in destroying infrastructure facilities and turning a large agglomeration into scorched earth.

According to documents from Yatsenko’s email, the occupiers plan to cross the Dnipro and capture the Korabel microdistrict. The reason is that, according to the Soviet maps used by the Russian invaders, this residential area is located on Quarantine Island.


The Russians want to seize Quarantine Island, but on their maps the Korabel district of Kherson is also considered part of it / Screenshot from UAControlMap

Simultaneously with assault operations, the Russians intend to increase attacks on the regional center’s energy infrastructure and water treatment facilities using strike UAVs and ballistic missiles.


Russians plan to attack Kherson with ballistic missiles / Photo provided by the 256 Cyber Assault Division

And while the enemy’s plans to cross the Dnipro look quite ambitious and ephemeral, their intention to intensify air attacks on the city is more than threatening.


Coordinates of 10 critical infrastructure sites in Kherson that Russians intend to attack / Photo provided by the 256 Cyber Assault Division

According to ISW analysts, Russia does not have enough forces to capture Kherson. However, Russia’s goal is the complete destruction of the city’s critical infrastructure to make it entirely unfit for living. This is part of an already tested scenario, and the Kherson Regional Military Administration warned of such plans back in 2024.

After the Russians destroyed the Kakhovka HPP and due to constant shelling, the city’s energy and water treatment systems are operating at the limits of their capabilities. Already now, untreated and partially treated wastewater exceeds the maximum permissible concentrations of mineralization, chlorides, and phosphates by 1.2–4.2 times, according to a scientific article by Svitlana Skok from Kherson State Agrarian and Economic University. The water of the Dnipro River in the area affected by Kherson’s runoff is classified as “very dirty” and “extremely dirty”.

According to experts, the destruction of the Kherson thermal power plant and the distribution networks of the energy infrastructure will trigger a “domino effect”: power outages will stop electricity supply to water intake pumping stations, sewage pumping stations, and water treatment facilities within minutes.

In particular, this will mean halting the lifting of 100–110 thousand m³ of water per day from artesian wells and the loss of access to water supply for residents. This also means that medical facilities will be unable to perform surgeries, sterilize instruments, or conduct dialysis.

The shutdown of sewage pumping stations will cause collectors to overflow within 6–12 hours, as sewage will stop reaching the treatment plants.

As a result, gravity-flow sections of the sewage system will overflow and rupture through the pipelines, 70% of which are in poor condition. This is due to two factors: outdated and worn-out infrastructure, and the impossibility of its renewal. Continuous shelling since February 2022 has made even emergency repairs deadly dangerous, not to mention preventive maintenance and restoration of the critically worn-out system.

The destruction of the Komyshany treatment plant (capacity 250 thousand m³/day) will lead to the direct discharge of untreated wastewater into the Dnipro River. The cessation of biological purification will result in the release of organic matter, pathogens, and heavy metals directly into the Dnipro-Bug estuary.

Dnieper–Bug Estuary — a unique ecosystem of more than 800 km², where the freshwater of the Dnipro mixes with the seawater of the Black Sea. It is a critical area for fish spawning grounds, migratory routes of marine species, and natural water filtration by biofilters (mussels, oysters).

The consequences of contamination may lead to:

  • destruction of spawning grounds and loss of a generation of fish;
  • death of natural biofilters (according to scientists, after the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP, low salinity and high toxicity reduced mussel populations in some areas of the Black Sea by 50%);
  • toxic contamination of bottom sediments with heavy metals, which experts consider a time bomb for the ecosystem;
  • eutrophication (excessive enrichment of water with nutrients).

See the infographic showing the composition of wastewater that may enter the Dnipro if Russians destroy Kherson’s water treatment facilities:

A critical factor in the far-reaching consequences of the disaster is Kherson’s proximity to the Black Sea. In 2023, the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP already caused serious damage to the aquatic area. Scientists recorded a sharp decrease in water salinity and its blooming due to the entry of large quantities of microorganisms. Russians have long been collecting large amounts of data on toxic Black Sea algae, particularly the mechanisms and consequences of sudden population blooms. One of the goals of blowing up the Kakhovka dam was precisely to provoke toxic algal bloom and contaminate the Black Sea coasts of NATO countries, which they openly discussed. The poisoned waters of the Dnipro will not reach the Russian coastline or occupied Crimea. The system of currents in the Black Sea forms the so-called “Knipovich’s glasses”: two counter-clockwise rotating cycles in the western and eastern parts of the sea. In addition, the Black Sea is characterized by weak water exchange between surface and deep layers, which causes toxins to accumulate and wash out slowly from the surface layer. Contaminated, toxin-laden waters will be carried toward the coasts of Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey.

Fortunately, in 2023 the worst-case scenario did not occur because the Kakhovka HPP is located far upstream on the Dnipro. Kherson, however, is almost in the marine area. Therefore, the path to contamination may be significantly shorter.

And it’s not only about wastewater. Under conditions of high concentration, the phenomenon of “Black Sea algal bloom” will lead to the development of cyanobacteria. There are about twenty species of cyanobacteria in the Black Sea that release dangerous toxins. These blue-green algae can suddenly increase in number (so-called water bloom, algae bloom) and release large amounts of toxins when water is polluted with organic matter. For example, the blue-green algae Microcystis aeruginosa releases toxins that damage the liver and nervous system. Discharges of domestic, agricultural, and industrial wastewater are one of the main causes provoking water bloom, and the bloom itself has a significant negative impact on human health, fishing, aquaculture, etc.

Toxins released during Black Sea water bloom may cause significant economic losses in coastal countries. The main reasons include seafood contamination, increased morbidity, and the bankruptcy and closure of aquaculture enterprises. For example, a complete collapse of commercial fishing in the region may occur within 2–3 years.

All these consequences may affect not only Ukraine but also NATO member states as part of Russia’s “hybrid war” against the European Union.

See the infographic on the consequences of an environmental disaster if Russia destroys Kherson’s water treatment facilities:

Ukraine’s ally Romania will be the first to suffer, as the area of the sea adjacent to the Danube Delta receives pollution in two ways: directly from the Danube and through sea currents from Ukrainian waters:

  • Flounder, mullet, and gobies – species migrating from Ukrainian waters – will become unsafe for consumption due to the accumulation of heavy metals in fish tissues. Because of this, Romania’s fishing industry will lose 50–100 million euros annually.
  • The beaches of Constanța, Mamaia, and Venus-Mangalia may become polluted due to toxic algae and “red tides,” which will hit tourism and lead to losses of 200–400 million euros per year.
  • Mussel farms in the Danube Delta may disappear completely, as these mollusks filter water and accumulate toxins. Experts estimate Romania’s mussel exports at around 30 million euros per year.

Previously, Ukraine would have been able to save the Black Sea and neighboring countries even in such an extreme ecological situation. In the event of massive discharge of untreated sewage, it could have been “diluted” by controlled release of water from reservoirs upstream. However, after the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP by Russian missile strikes and the damage to the DniproHES dam in Zaporizhzhia, this is no longer possible. The only way to prevent an environmental catastrophe is to stop the aggressor before it is too late.