When comparing the current conflict with WWII, we may indeed have reached a new 1944 in our battle with the new-Hitler. Putin's series of failures and setbacks led to the beginning of the end. This article will discuss the possible outcomes of this scenario and the measures that the West needs to take to confront Russia.

Interesting ISW forecasts negative effects of Russian mobilization

Mistakes – because all these actions apparently will trigger the next wave of world reaction, whether these would be new sanctions imposed on Russia and/or further strengthening of defense support of Ukraine. Mobilization will also accelerate the internal crisis in Russia, which would deepen its growing economic and social problems.

Simultaneously with Putin’s address Russian Defense Minister Shoigu gave an interview to Russian television. Specifically, he mentioned 2 numbers – 5,937 KIAs – claimed losses of Russian military during “special military operation” and 300,000 – number of reservists to be drafted to the Russian army.

Apparently the number of losses is one of the many lies Russia is pushing to its people and the world. According to estimates of Ukrainian General Staff Russians lost approx 55,000 personnel killed during the war phase started Feb.24th.

US DoD presented similar estimates in August 2022 - that as many as 80,000 Russians have been killed or wounded in Ukraine since the war began in late February.

The Russians have probably taken 70 or 80,000 casualties in less than six months, – Under Secretary of Defense Colin Kahl said.

And – just a common sense question – if Russians lost less than 6,000 as Shoigu declared – why do they need major reinforcement to their depleted troops? Seems Ukrainian and US estimates are much more realistic. Russia lost more manpower in 7 months of full-scale war against Ukraine than in 10 years of war in Afghanistan. The USSR lost 15,000 soldiers in that war, according to official statistics.

Seems Russia is weakened and the Kremlin understands – they’re losing this war. Especially after the successful counter-offensive of Ukrainians in the north of Ukraine, where the Ukrainian military has already released about 9,000 square kilometers from Russian invaders. According to the statement of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy about 400 settlements have already been liberated.

The quality of military training for Russian "recruits," as well as the ongoing coordination of new units with combat units, remain critical issues. Despite this, Russia will have an army ready to launch another attack on Ukraine in a matter of months, if not weeks, according to some experts.

Russia remains a threat, and we must take Putin's warnings seriously. Putin’s decree dated September 21st announcing “partial mobilization” consists of 10 paragraphs, and the 7th paragraph is missing – after 6th you go straight to 8th. The Kremlin refuses to comment or release content of 7th paragraph, stating the clause contains “restricted use information”. Thus we might expect additional steps by the Kremlin to extend declared partial mobilization or to increase the number of draftees.

Mobilization, which will result in an increase of Russian conventional military force, together with nuclear black-mail hints of Russia should put the international community on a higher level of alert. Predator is wounded, bleeding, inadequate and thus yet dangerous.

The Russian army's replenishment creates new challenges for Ukrainians, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces have something to counter the eastern enemy:

  • Significant support for Ukraine from European and American partners in the form of high-tech weapons.
  • Significant military experience and professionalism of the Ukrainian army, as highlighted by Western allies multiple times.
  • Ukrainian militaries are not afraid to embrace responsibility in crucial situations, making professional and effective decisions.


What sort of response should the collective West present, how can the world support Ukraine further in these circumstances?

Brief and straight to the point vision is provided by Mykhailo Podolyak, Adviser to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine:

So, allies should response to mobilization in Russia with:

  • Activation of Rammstein [program].
  • Twice as many HIMARS and [its] missiles.
  • ATACMS [long range HIMARS missiles].
  • Lifting off “taboo” for MBTs/APCs [deliveries to Ukraine]
  • Training centers for [Ukrainian] warriors.

Ukraine is defending not only itself, but Europe's borders. Do partners understand this?

To end the war and stop bloody Russian aggression with less casualties, less possibilities for Russia to commit new war crimes, Ukraine needs faster and extended military, economical and political support.

Putin's announcement of partial mobilization is a sign that the Russian leader is being forced to make difficult decisions and take unpopular steps to solve the problem he created by starting the war against Ukraine. Again, mobilization won’t help Russia to resolve the crisis they’re in, but “wounded” dictatorship is yet dangerous. The world leading powers should take all the actions possible to prevent Russia’s usage of mass destruction weapons, including nuclear armament; to be agile, united and consistent in growing decisive support of Ukraine.