The obstacle to this is Afghan nationalism, which is limited by borders. President of the Center for Middle East Studies Igor Semivolos spoke about this on Channel 24.

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At the same time, there are forces, including the Taliban, that would like to expand into Central Asia. At the same time, as Semivolos explained, Tajikistan is a "base" country for obtaining resources.

"Depending on how weak Russia will become and how troops will be redeployed from Central Asia to the Ukrainian front, their numbers will dwindle and so there is a growing likelihood that the Taliban is likely to take active action in this direction," Semivolos said.

In his opinion, the Taliban is unlikely to set itself the task of capturing Tajikistan. The terrain there is quite difficult, so such an operation could cause significant losses. At the same time, destabilization by the Taliban is possible.